Android is destroying everyone, especially RIM, and iPhone is dead in the water. So says Henry Blodget, citing comScore’s recent US smartphone market share estimates for the quarter ending Feb 2011 (compared to the previous quarter ending Nov 2010):

• Android 33% (up 7%)
• BlackBerry 29% (down 5%)
• iPhone 25% (flat)

Blodget goes on to say:

The Android gains matter because technology platform markets tend to standardize around a single dominant platform. And the more dominant the platform becomes, the more valuable it becomes and the harder it becomes to dislodge. The network effect kicks in, and developers building products designed to work with the platform devote more and more of their energy to the platform. The reward for building and working with other platforms, meanwhile, drops, and gradually developers stop developing for them.

But is market share a reliable metric of network effect? Google doesn’t charge handset manufacturers or carriers for using Android, so it should sell more strongly than Apple’s more expensive iPhone. It takes a conscious decision to pay extra for an iPhone, whereas carriers are giving Android handsets to many customers by default.  These customers may have little or no loyalty to the Android brand. In fact, many of them do not even know their phone is running Android.

As an alternative to market share as a metric of network effect, it may be more objective to consider mind share. Network effect is at least partly a social phenomenon. While ever a platform consciously commands people’s hearts and minds, it is presumably more likely to become dominant over competing platforms.

The Google Insights for Search chart below offers a comparison of worldwide search patterns for the terms ‘iPhone’, ‘iPad’, ‘Android’, ‘BlackBerry’ and ‘Windows Mobile’ over the 65 months since the iPhone was first rumoured. While searches for the term ‘Android’ are keeping pace with the term ‘iPad’, they have a long way to go before they catch searches for ‘iPhone’.

The chart may suggest that Apple remains well ahead in the race toward mind share, and therefore platform domination.